Ukraine update: Russia's shadow fleet goes up in flames

For the last several weeks, Ukraine has been concentrating on striking Russia's refineries and storage depots for petroleum products. The result has been fuel shortages not just in increasingly isolated Crimea, but everywhere across Russia. As the BBC reports:

If you want to get a sense of the fuel crisis gripping Russia, all you need to do is spend a day driving around Moscow. At almost every petrol station we passed there was a queue of cars and lorries. … If there was no queue, that meant the garage had run out of fuel entirely and was closed.

Things are bad enough that Russian drivers have taken to following fuel trucks around, and on more than one occasion, civilians have tried to either hijack a truck or force it off the road to take the fuel.

Earlier this week, the Kremlin banned the export of diesel fuel after a fresh series of Ukrainian drone attacks hit both major storage fields near Moscow and what was reported to be the last undamaged refinery in the country – located an astounding 2,600 km from the border with Ukraine.

However, even though Russia is desperately clinging to its dwindling supply of refined diesel and gasoline, it is still exporting crude oil. Much of the oil is carried by the "shadow fleet," a clandestine network consisting of hundreds of tankers. These ships may carry registrations in a number of countries, but they are all operated by the Russian government to bring in the revenue that allows Vladimir Putin to continue fighting his illegal war.

On Sunday and Monday, Ukraine hit 12 Russian tankers along with a tugboat and other vessels. These attacks took place simultaneously with a series of attacks on electrical substations and more oil refinery infrastructure.

On Tuesday evening, Ukraine hit 9 more, bringing the total number of tankers damaged in 72 hours to 21.

One day later, Ukraine struck 12 more tankers, raising the tally to 38. The total number of Russian tankers operating in the Black Sea as of last week? That was also 38.

How many functional tankers remain is unclear. What's certain is that any tanker operating in the Black Sea is subject to being struck by naval drones, air drones, or both. Russia is completely incapable of protecting these ships.

When Putin rolled tanks across the border of Ukraine in 2022, he expected to be driving through Kyiv in three days. Instead, the Russian military can't hold a parade without Zelenskyy's permission, Russian drivers are waiting in three day lines , and the chances of a total Ukrainian victory haven't looked this good since the days of the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

At this week's NATO summit, Finnish President Alexander Stubb summed up the current feeling in Europe: Ukraine has already won this war.

“Look at things from a Moscow perspective: In the past four years, during the active war, they have advanced 60 kilometers. In World War II, they went from Moscow to Berlin, that’s 1,400 kilometers. You have to ask yourself: ‘Who has won, who has lost?’ I say Ukraine has won."

That doesn't mean the war is over. If anything, Russian attacks are becoming more numerous and more desperate as Putin scrambles to salvage anything from this disastrous invasion. In particular, Russian forces seem to be pushing in the area around Lyman in the north, with Ukrainian troops facing dozens of assaults each day.

At the moment, this doesn't seem to be going well for Russia.

While Ukrainian troops may be holding tight to details of exchanges that are still underway, the latest casualty figures continue to show what has been true for months: Russia is losing men at a rate far greater than it can replace them.

Russian casualty figures from Ukrainian General Staff

The huge number of casualties and large numbers of destroyed vehicles have become standard. What's unusual is the seven tanks lost in a day. Russia certainly burned through armor at a higher rate earlier in the war, but recently it's been holding back what little remains of its tank fleet. So what's with the seven tanks?

Well, there's a good explanation for at least one of them: It ran out of gas.

According to Ukrainian paratroopers, the Russian crew fled the combat vehicle after it stalled while they were trying to escape a Ukrainian advance. “This T-72 tank is special—it is a trophy. And our guys got it without firing a single shot. All because the fuel gauge in the Russian vehicle hit zero,” Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces said.

Ukrainian troops got the tank back to their supply base, refueled it, and it's already back in service — pointing at Russian forces.

Unfortunately, there's another aspect to Putin's desperation. Russian strikes against Kyiv have killed more civilians than at any time since the war's opening month.

Russia can't win this thing on the battlefield. Putin wants to win it through bloodshed and cruelty. But that's not going to happen.