You may have noticed something about last week's Ukraine Update … there wasn't one. That's not because nothing was happening in the fifth year of Vladimir Putin's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. It's because so much was happening and there were so many contradictory signals.
If you step into social media for five minutes, you'll find that Ukraine is about to liberate Crimea, that Russian forces on the eastern front are about to collapse, and that Ukraine is obliterating Russian energy infrastructure. You'll also learn that Ukrainians are deserting in such numbers that kilometers of the front line are undefended, that Ukrainian military recruiters are abducting civilians in the streets, and that people are ready to oust President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for corruption.
Of all the foggy spots in this war, this may be the foggiest.
A big part of that comes down to sheer propaganda. For example, claims that Ukraine is on the brink of retaking Crimea, or that it has already taken part of that peninsula, appear to be, at best, highly optimistic interpretations of the situation south of Zaporizhzhia. Meanwhile, many of the clips that claim to show members of Ukrainian military violently grabbing men off the streets are simply fakes pumped out by pro-Russian sites.
As with so many issues, the truth is a lot more complicated.
On May 15, Russia launched one of its largest aerial attacks on Kyiv since the war began, using a combination of drones, missiles, and glide bombs, with the great majority targeting civilian buildings. At least 24 people were killed in the first round of this bombardment with over 80 more injured. Russia has continued these attacks over the last two weeks of May, resulting in a large number of civilian deaths and damage in the Ukrainian capital as well as other cities.
24Hours Ukraine
Russia's attack also reportedly included at least one of its new hypersonic Oreshnik missiles. However, reports from the ground seem to indicate that this missile, reported to be nuclear capable, struck the outlying town of Bila Tserkva without causing extensive damage or deaths.
These attacks continued today when another major barrage of missiles and drones hit Kyiv. At least 8 people are dead just from the attacks on homes and bus today. Zelenskyy has reached out to US officials hoping for more anti-missile defenses. So far, there has been no response.
Following that first major assault, Ukraine has stepped up its own use of long-range drones against targets in Russia. While much of Ukraine's efforts have been focused on military targets and oil infrastructure, an attack on the Moscow area immediately following Russia's large assault on Kyiv did apparently strike a civilian building. With some of these targets over 1,500 km from the Ukrainian border, they're becoming harder for Russians to ignore.
When it comes to Crimea, much of the excitement seems to focus on Ukraine's recent gains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and particularly on a battle that took place in the town of Stepnohirsk.
Six months ago, pro-Russian outlets were very excited by a Russian advance into Stepnohirsk. Capturing the highway intersection there made it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to move men and supplies along the southern front. It also advanced Russia's position along the 4-lane M18 highway leading to the city of Zaporizhzhia, with few good defensive positions remaining beyond Stepnohirsk.
However, earlier this spring Ukraine staged a counterassault on Stepnohirsk from both the north and the east, driving Russian forces back from the critical highway. Since then, the area been described as one of the worst meatgrinders anywhere along the front lines, with repeated Russian assaults breaking against strong resistance.
In the last two weeks, Ukraine has renewed the counterattack in this area, with many sources reporting that Russian losses in Stepnohirsk open the door for Ukraine to liberate, not just southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, but Crimea.
And maybe it does. Last week, ISW doubled its earlier estimates of how much territory Ukraine has liberated in the south. They also reported that Ukrainian mid-range drone attacks are "disrupting Russian logistics … along the land corridor connecting occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts with Crimea."
However, looking at the most recent maps from DeepState and Andrew Perpetua does not reflect any large area of new Ukrainian advance in the south. These maps are sometimes conservative, particularly when trying not to reveal the details of an ongoing action, but the positions they show, with Stepnohirsk remaining split between Russian and Ukrainian forces, also match much of what's coming from sources with good front line knowledge.
While all this was going on, the United States threw up its hands and declared it was going to give up on negotiations after the last round lead to a pile of nothing. Which is probably a good thing.
Here are some as-close-to-facts as I can confirm through sources on the ground:
- Some areas of Ukraine's line are lightly manned, sometimes by as few as 10 men spaced over a kilometer. However, these are in areas where Russian forces are also light. Because surveillance is so good at this point on both sides, it's difficult for either army to reposition for a push without the other side having time to prepare.
- In many locations, troops in vehicles and armor are relocated with some frequency away from the front, but the drone forces, positioned very close to the front lines, are making longer and longer stays in small bunkers. They are rarely rotated and often resupplied by more drones. When the line is lightly manned, it's these guys and their drones who are holding the ground.
- Ukraine has retaken areas on the south and has prevented Russia from advancing beyond Stepnohirsk. They've also pushed Russian forces back from the center of town, which is good because this is the last location with large concrete buildings along the highway south of Zaporizhzhia. If Russia is going to take this place, it looks like it will require grinding forward with artillery, a process that is never quick.
- Large numbers of forces on both sides remain concentrated in the area along the M18 highway south of Zaporizhzhia city. If there's going to be a conflict in the short term that expands beyond drones and a few light vehicles, this could well be the place. However, that's a long way from the "100,000 Russians are surrounded!" headlines being seen on YouTube.
- Ukraine's medium to long-range drones are causing a lot of logistical problems for Russia, and not just on the southern front. The 3rd Corps of the Ukrainian army is reporting that it has "fire control" on the city of Luhansk, which is over 100km behind the front lines. By this, it doesn't mean that it can direct artillery into the city. It means that it can now use drones to regularly hit targets in Luhansk, as well as other cities like Starobilsk and Kadiivka that are well beyond range of conventional weapons.
- Ukraine is reportedly using some of this enhanced reach to target barracks and training sites in Russian-occupied territory. This is forcing Russia to relocate forces further from the front lines and increasing the complexity of operations, as well as driving up the numbers of Russian forces killed and injured.
- When it comes to those losses, Russia's numbers are still going up. They're now losing between 1,400 and 1,500 a day. And, in a big reversal of most modern conflicts, better than two-thirds of those casualties are reportedly deaths. Russia continues to lose more forces than it recruits.
- One number that's been growing rapidly in the last few weeks of losses is light vehicles—cars, motorcycles, and civilian-grade trucks (often the "loaf" box truck) being used to shuttle troops around near the front lines. Whether this is because Russia is pressing more of these into service as the availability of tanks and armor decline, or Ukraine is using increased range and skill to tap vehicles that were previously safe isn't clear. Either way, whole car lots of vehicles are going down each day.
- Russian attempts to get within tube artillery range of Kharkiv are being held back by the difficultly of crossing the Vovchansk River. With existing bridges either down or tightly defended, Russia has been trying to force a crossing using pontoons, but Ukraine has so far disrupted (read as "blown up") these efforts. Russia's river-crossing efforts in this war continue to be some of their biggest disasters.
- Kupyansk is, and has been, a mess. You might remember Kupyansk as the city located about 120km east of Kharkiv along the Oskil River. It was one of the last locations Ukraine liberated in its big Kharkiv Oblast counterattack in the first year of the war. In 2025, Russia pushed back to the banks of the river on the eastern side and began working its way through the city. Since then, swarms of drones, artillery firing from both directions, and intense block-by-block fighting have reduced much of the city to ruins. That fighting continues. In the last week, Russia reportedly attempted to take the city using its new infiltration tactics by sending small teams to establish themselves at various locations in the rubble. However, Ukrainian forces report they have rooted out the Russians and turned back the infiltration.
- There's a swirling mess of opposing pushes about 20km east of Russia's big remaining targets in Donetsk: Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Russian bloggers are claiming that Ukrainian forces are surrounded near the town of Rai-Oleskandrivka. However, ISW is reporting no Russian advance in this area.
- Some reports seem to have Ukrainian forces using tanks and artillery at locations in Kharkiv that should be vulnerable to Russian drone forces. This could indicate a weakness in some areas of the Russian line ... or not.
That's about it. Hopefully, by the time the next update comes along, there will be some more clearly identifiable actions and themes. Here's hoping I'm wrong about all those hopeful Crimea reports and we're all smiling next week.
Kate from Kharkiv
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