Trump isn’t just losing the war, he’s losing the world

On Wednesday, Donald Trump waited inside Marine One on a sweltering tarmac at Joint Base Edwards. Meanwhile, the inflatable evacuation ramp on his Qatari-gifted luxury 747 flopped out onto the runway. No one came down the ramp. No one explained why the ramp was down or why Trump was still sitting in the chopper 15 minutes after it had landed.

Finally, the escape ramp began to go, appropriately enough, limp and Trump emerged from the helicopter.

Trump was asked if he knew why the ramp was deployed, and provided a stammering response.

"No, they were checking it before, and they just wanted to make sure, so they've, uhh, I guess they've already put it up. They want to make sure everything works perfectly.”

Then Trump waited. And everyone else waited. Because the ramp couldn’t possibly have been tested on any of the many days when the plane was sitting idle. Finally, the crew began dragging the shriveled ramp away, but Trump continued to claim the plane was completely safe. The national media seems to have completely ignored any metaphors.

The truth behind this incident will inevitably come out. You'll know that someone has reported the truth when Trump accuses them of treason.

While he was roasting on the runway, Trump also got the opportunity to address the latest developments on the disintegration of the Middle East. According to him, the two week war, which has already been won at least a dozen times and is also now in its seventh month, is scheduled to end in just eight more weeks.

“I think the war is going to end immediately after the election,” he said, speaking to reporters on the tarmac as he made his way to Texas for the Republican midterm convention. “They can’t hold out any longer. They’re desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice, weak group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapons.”

"Desperate" seems to be Trump's favorite word. He used it at least 36 times by mid-June. That's in addition to the more than dozen occasions when he claimed that Iranians were "begging" for a deal.

Trump repeated his "right after the election" claim when he finally appeared at his Trumpapalooza event. However, his own staff is warning that Tehran has no reason to back down and the war Trump started is likely to still be going when he leaves the White House in 2029.

Trump‘s claim about the desperation of the Iranian government comes one day after their Houthi allies attacked four cities in Saudi Arabia and set oil storage facilities on fire. On the same day, Iran attacked ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for U.S. attacks on Iranian tankers. The combined exchange between American and Iranian forces over the last two days was actually the largest attack on shipping since the war began.

Those attacks sent the price of oil soaring past $100. With the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sitting at record lows, there's little that Trump can do to soften the impact on the economy. Americans should expect gas prices to remain high, no matter what Trump says, for months to come.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran’s actions over the last few days represent a “new appetite for escalation.“ Far from backing down, Iran has been firing missiles directly at U.S. ships, including the aircraft carrier USS George Washington. The goal of these attacks seems to be to exhaust the military's shrinking supply of anti-missile munitions, forcing the U.S. to either increase its attacks or withdraw.

As the strategic analysis publication Phillip’s Newsletter reports, that tactic is working.

We are watching the real-time degradation of US military power in the Gulf—so much so that it might represent the end of an era. However the discussion in the US is bizarrely over whether the US is now winning the war. … What we should really be discussing is whether the US retreat from the Middle East can be deftly handled or will turn into a strategic rout.

There’s little doubt that the United States could defeat the Iranian military. But that would require detailed advance planning, a fixed set of goals, and a clear reason for involving the nation in yet another costly war in a region that’s already consumed thousands of troops and trillions of dollars. Trump’s war has none of those things.

Instead, it has:

Trump vacillating wildly
Pete Hegseth screaming about testosterone while firing anyone with experience
Benjamin Netanyahu whispering conspiracy theories into Trump’s catering cart
Iranian leadership that can’t believe how goddamn lucky they are to be up against this crew.

It doesn't matter that the U.S. can sink Iranian ships or blast their few remaining planes. None of those things represent a step toward ending the war or restoring U.S. power in the region.

Two weeks ago, retired four-star General Barry McCaffrey declared that the U.S. military has ”permanently“ lost access to 15 military bases in the Persian Gulf. The idea seemed shocking at the time, but it increasingly looks like an understatement. In the wake of this conflict, the United States is losing both bases and support across the region.

Far from providing defense, U.S. military presence in the region has largely served to provide targets. Nations that host American bases have suffered attacks on oil facilities, hotels, and critical infrastructure. Given Trump's insistence on breaking treaties and threatening to bomb allies, it's unclear why any of them would ever want us back.

As Trump was continuing to boast about how the U.S. was winning the war, again, CBS News reported that an Iranian attack on a U.S. base in Jordan had caused far more destruction than previously acknowledged.

Even in its depleted state, the American military vastly outclasses that of Iran. But no military, no matter how well trained and equipped, can win a war in which no one can define “winning.” And no nation can win a war of attrition if their opponent can force the expenditure of a multi-million dollar missile by tossing out a $1000 drone. The era in which the bulk tonnage of vessels and the combined cost of missiles was enough to ensure victory is well and truly over.

Big and expensive has become a liability. Our military is very big, very expensive, and very poorly led.

Right now, the Middle East is moving toward a future in which the United States no longer represents any form of stabilizing force. Europe has been on that path for months. Asia isn’t far behind.

Trump isn’t simply losing the war, he’s losing the world. He has burned all the bridges. Poisoned all the wells. Scorched all the earth. His failures on the battlefield and in diplomatic chambers have stripped America of influence.

Trump continues to make ridiculous statements such as claiming that Canada is dependent on U.S. protection. They are not. Neither is anyone other nation. At this point, it's unclear that the United States is even capable of protecting anyone, including the United States.

However, if America goes up in flames, there are many former allies who will be standing by ... with marshmallows.