Election Live Blog #1

It's sweaty palms time. Or sweaty something. It's definitely time to sweat.

The final set of polls look extremely positive. Betting markets and pundits have continued to spread a hopeful message throughout the day. So naturally Democrats are now hiding in the deepest corner of their fallout shelters, chugging Pepto while desperately looking for a hardhat and ear plugs.

Right there with you.

But it's our job tonight to keep at least one feeler raised into the news stream and sample the night air for results as they come in. If you can manage to crack one eye open from time to time, check in here and well you know what's happening without having to face a single trumpets & snare drum-heavy intro. Who knows? Maybe you won't need that huge supply of self-stable skim milk.

If you haven't yet read Arjun's fantastic guide to the midterm elections, here's the timetable for poll closures across the nation. All times are in EST.

• 6:00 PM: Indiana and parts of Kentucky
• 7:00 PM: Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
• 7:30 PM: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
• 8:00 PM: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, South Dakota
• 8:30 PM: Arkansas
• 9:00 PM: New York, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico
• 10:00 PM: North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Oregon, Nevada
• 11:00 PM: California, Washington
• Late Night: Alaska and Hawai’i

Right now, literally millions of people are still waiting to vote. Obviously, 8PM EST is the Super Tuesday of poll-closing hours. That's when we'll start seeing some results in the most nail biting of Senate races. But there are going to be earlier signs that definitely show us which way the wind is blowing. That includes Sen. Jon Ossoff's race in Georgia and the much more difficult race of Rep. Angie Nixon in Florida. Not long after, we're going to start getting results in one of the states that could be real test: Ohio.

If you're in Indiana or the eastern half of Kentucky, the polls are closing any minute now. It may not seem like there's anything in those first two locations, but there's at least one genuinely intriguing race in Indiana, though it's not one you might have heard much about if you live outside the region.

As Arjun explains:

The [Indiana Sec. of State] race is competitive because of Republican fumbling, and because the Democratic candidate, Beau Bayh, is political royalty in Indiana. Bayh (whose full name is Birch Evans Bayh IV) is the son of former Governor and Senator Evan Bayh and the grandson of Senator Birch Bayh. He is also a telegenic former Marine and graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School.

Indiana Republicans are pushing the idea that Bayh is not a real Hoosier, because he "grew up in Washington D.C." Bayh's adds refute that with a heavy lean on his military service.

How this race goes in this red state may give us at least a first sign of which way the wind is blowing.

Take a deep breath. Here we go.

Update: Holy billionaires, Batman.

This early, outlets are reluctant to release any exit poll data that directly addresses the candidates on the ballot. But we are getting some clues about how voters are feeling as they walk away from the booth.

The odds of Democratic control of the Senate on Kalshi have gone from 73% to 81% in the few minutes since the first polls closed. We're certainly seeing what seems to be a big Democratic shift in the early vote in Hamilton County, Indiana ... but I'm not sure that's a "so goes the nation" level event just yet.

First call of the night from Decision Desk HQ. Nothing to really celebrate, since it's a Republican hold (and a replacement of one of the few Republicans willing to stand up to Trump), but this was entirely expected. Don't read anything into this.

More information from the early vote that indicates some big shifts in the blue direction. It's too early to make any kind of call in these races, but these are significant numbers.

Expect Bayh to bring home much higher numbers in the Indianapolis, Terre Haute, and Evansville areas.

We're about to see the next set of polls close at 7:00 PM EST.

7:00 Poll Closing: Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida

Here is where the real action begins.  There are marquee House races in Virginia (and a few interesting ones, albeit long shots, in Florida and South Carolina); high-profile U.S. Senate races in Georgia and South Carolina; and competitive Governor’s races in Georgia and Florida. 

Here's a compressed version of what to look for as we start to get numbers from these states:

Virginia Senate

Democratic Sen. Mark Warner is expected to cruise to reelection, probably by 20 points. 

Virginia House

The likeliest Democratic flip is in the Second District, based in the Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads region.  …

The First District is more of a true tossup.  …

In the Fifth District, which begins in the college town of Charlottesville and extends down to Southside Virginia, through Lynchburg all the way to Danville, Republican Rep. John McGuire is favored but finds himself in a surprisingly tough race against his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Tom Perriello.  …

If there is not only a Democratic wave but a potential tsunami forming, keep an eye on the Sixth District.  Solidly Republican for generations, this district takes in most of the Shenandoah Valley and the cities of Roanoke, Harrisonburg, and Winchester. 

Georgia Senate

Two years ago, first-term Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff was considered possibly the most vulnerable incumbent Senator in either party. Today, Ossoff appears to be cruising to re-election against a subpar opponent, Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins (son of former Rep. Mac Collins – yet another scion of a political family rears his head).

Georgia Governor

The governor’s race pits the former mayor of Atlanta and Biden administration official, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, against Republican billionaire Rick Jackson.

South Carolina Senate

Darline Graham Nordone, or Darline Graham as she now refers to herself, seems like a fairly well-meaning person without an iota of knowledge of foreign policy or most domestic policy.  Ordinarily, that’s OK.  You can get elected statewide pretty easily in South Carolina as a nice but politically ignorant Republican. … she finds herself, against all odds, in a neck-and-neck race with the Democratic nominee, pediatrician Annie Andrews. Polls show the race extremely close and both parties are spending money as if this race is highly competitive.

Florida

Honestly, go read Arjun's complete analysis. You're going to need it if you want to understand anything in this state.

Sen. Mark Warner projected as the winner in Virginia. No surprise there. But seeing someone get the nod this early is never a bad sign.

It may not look like it, but these are fantastic numbers in Kentucky 6. The blue areas around Lexington are not yet in these numbers. Alvarado may not have piled up enough votes in rural areas to keep Dembo from edging ahead once the areas around UK start to come in.

Florida gubernatorial candidate David Jolly looking amazingly good in early voting.

Rep. Kathy Castor defying a redrawn district that was supposed to give the Republicans another seat in Florida. So far holding a big lead with 77% of the vote in.

In the words of a recently departed hero: Make it so!

Here comes Ohio and the first of the potential Senate nail biters of the evening. So far. every pollster that signaled a blue wave seems to be right. Let's see if that wave keeps sweeping across the country.

7:30 Poll Closings: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

Former Governor Roy Cooper looks like one of the easiest blue wins on an increasingly blue night in North Carolina.

Sherrod Brown in Ohio will be the first test of the major flips Democrats need to take the Senate.

West Virginia ... is there.

Nail biter alert. Luna is one of the most extreme, and popular, representatives of MAGA land. She's currently leading in her race by 38 votes with 93% of the vote counted.

The flood of closures is about to hit. At the same time, several districts in earlier states are getting close to the end. Expect a lot calls in the next hour.

8:00:  Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Tennessee, South Dakota.  

With Maine, Texas, and Michigan about to close, I don't have to tell you how important this is going to be.

Dem. Rep Kathy Castor has held on in Florida 14 despite having her district redrawn to advantage Republicans.

Angie Nixon holding onto a significant lead in Florida surprisingly late in the evening, but much of the remaining vote is in the heavily red panhandle. Still, it remains possible.

Kalshi now has Democrats at 91% to control the Senate. No, I don't know what the gunslingers are basing that on.

Polls are closed in most of Texas. Do not hold your breath.

Amy Acton anihilating Vivek Ramaswamy in early results from Ohio.

Rep. Jared Moskowitz also survives the GOP gerrymander of Florida 25. Unclear if Republicans are actually going to make any gains from DeSantis' big redistricting.

First numbers in from Denton Co., Texas. This is one of the state's swing counties and expected to be a good predictor of results in other areas of the state.

NBC just announced that Ohio "leans Democrat" in the Senate race. Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton have both built up big cushions in the early numbers. What's still to come in is more rural Election Day results, which tend to be more Republican, but the numbers are looking very good so far.

As expected, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has won the Senate election in New Hampshire. It's hard to remember that the Republicans thought they could flip this seat just two months ago.

NBC has called North Carolina Senate for Roy Cooper. This an expected flip, but it's still a flip.

This is Haley Steven's county.

I don't know how many bellwethers Texas has, but Talarico seems to be ringing them all.

NBC projecting Ashley Moody to hold the Senate seat in Florida by about 2 points. This is Marco Rubio's former seat. Democrat Angie Nixon made it much closer than projected. Just look at the final predictions for this race.

Nixon over performed the polls by 4+ points.

The first House flip of the night is NC-11, where Democrat Jamie Ager easily defeats Republican Jennifer Balkcom.

And a quick second: Indiana's 5th District, Democrat JD Ford pulls out an upset win against incumbent Rep. Victoria Spartz. This was an unlikely pick up—one that was seen as a possible bellwether for a "blue tsunami" tonight.

And Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms wins the Georgia governorship, becoming the first Black woman to become a state governor ... ever.

With about half the vote in, Sherrod Brown is holding onto a 4 point lead in Ohio.

Holy crow.