Election Day: The ultimate guide to 2026 Midterms

Uncharted Blue may not have studios filled with screaming commentators or a giant white board where we can make the numbers dance. But we have something better. Much better.

We have this fantastic analysis assembled by political powerhouse Arjun Jaikumar. You may remember Arjun as one of the most knowledgable insiders at ... another site. It's safe to say that you will be seeing anything of this depth on CNN or MS Now.

The entire 60-page document is available to read right now. And you should read it. Really. It is just so good.

Whether you're interested in the Secretary of State race in Indiana, the nip-and-tuck fight for a House seat in the St. Louis suburbs, or the extensive list of ballot initiatives facing Massachusetts voters, it's all in there. And it has the history and deep knowledge that illuminates why some races are more important than you may think, along with why some are so frustratingly difficult to turn blue.

No matter what the outcome of the evening, your election night will be better if you sit down, grab some coffee, and read.

As we roll through the evening, we'll be jumping into this novella of political insight to lead off each new round of poll closings. We'll be adding election results, calls from major news organizations, additional insights, and links to news or events. Right now, with the first poll closings still several hours away, here's Arjun's intro.

Hi friends - years ago, I used to write or help write election guides for a political website I once worked for.  I’m out of the journalistic/forecasting game now, but I’m still an obsessive, and I know many of you are avidly following this year’s midterm elections.  

So I put together this almost novel-length election guide.  It’s probably mostly for genuine sickos like me, but I hope some of you might find it interesting.  

It is organized by poll closing time and by state, so you can follow along as the night develops.  If you are interested in a particular state or want to know what to look for during the 9:00 hour, for example, just hit ctrl-F and find what you want.  

Some notes!

This guide is long, but it’s all my own work.  No AI was used in the making of this guide.  I have too much pride in my own writing and analysis to do that.  

Related, this reflects my own work and opinions alone, not those of any other person or organization.  This is a labor of love for me, done on nights and weekends, shared with no agenda.  

This is not designed to tell you what will happen Tuesday.  If I have an opinion I sometimes share it, but mostly I’m reflecting conventional wisdom.  I am trying to be descriptive rather than predictive, so you can follow along as the polls close.  

(My one and only “hard” prediction, which hasn’t changed in a month: Democrats win 51 Senate seats and 233 House seats.  I am usually overly optimistic about Democratic chances, but in this case, I believe I am being . . . if not conservative, at least not particularly bold.  This is where most pundits have it.  I think Democrats and Republicans will split the tossup Senate races right down the middle).  

One final note: this is about pure electoral politics, not policy.  Obviously I have my own opinions – I am a progressive Democrat and I personally support progressives anywhere they can win – but this guide is about elections only.  There is nothing implied by me describing someone as a moderate Republican or a progressive Democrat or a MAGA extremist outside of whether I think it has affected their chances at election.  

One final final note: please don’t ask me whether John Fetterman will switch parties until at least Thursday.