All Trump had to do was nothing

Maybe it's not a bad idea to let Donald Trump build his massive ego-boosting arch. In a way, this seems like an appropriate object to mark his second term. After all, the original Arc de Triomphe in Paris that inspired Trump's obsession was commissioned by Napoleon Bonaparte just a few years before he made one of the most celebrated blunders in world history. L'Empereur did not live to see it finished.

Trump has already made his blunder.

The strangest thing about this past two years may be that Trump had a genuine path to be remembered as a great president. Decades from now, people might have forgotten about January 6 and Trump's multitude of crimes. Republicans seeking office might have spoken Trump's name in glowing terms, just as the previous generation still invokes a poorly-remembered Ronald Reagan. And all Trump had to do was … nothing.

In the wake of the 2020 pandemic, expectations were that America would swiftly fall into a recession caused by the disruption of normal supply chains. By the time President Joe Biden took office, a third of economists were predicting a recession later that year. When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, driving up oil prices overnight, those predictions became even more dire. Forecasts of an economic crash were everywhere. By 2023, The Economist was warning that a deep recession was "inevitable."

However, thanks largely to the American Rescue Plan, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Chips and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act the predicted recession never arrived.

Gas prices fell. Stock prices soared. Inflation peaked in the spring of 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, but moderated smoothly without generating the massive spikes in unemployment that traditional economic models expected. Though the media continued to act as if the sky was falling, and an outbreak of avian flu provided a convenient "price of eggs" drum to pound, by the middle of 2024, America wasn't just on the road to recovery, it was driving toward a period of exceptional broad-based growth

While every pundit in America was there to wring their hands over Biden's miserable performance in the first debate, few seem to have noticed that while saving the nation from a recession he had also effectively broken OPEC and positioned the nation to be a powerhouse in oil, renewable energy, and technology. Biden didn't just sell off part of the strategic reserve to bring down gas prices, he actually turned a profit for the nation at the same time he was shifting everything toward cleaner, cheaper energy.

Going into Trump's second term, Biden handed off an America that had strengthened ties with European allies, committed to increasing support of Ukraine against "war criminal" Putin, and signed a roadmap for a tighter partnership with Canada. Gas was $3.08 a gallon. Beef was $5.50 a pound. Unemployment was 4.0%. Inflation was down to 3.0% while wage growth was up to 4.1%.

It was hard to get past the image of a floundering Biden clearly plagued by the depredations of age and his soon-to-be diagnosed cancer. But the nation he left behind him was recovering quickly from the crisis of the first Trump administration. The Inflation Reduction Act, along with the CHIPS Act, were spurring massive investments in the United States. The Infrastructure Act was providing safer bridges, cleaner power, and more efficient transportation.

And red states in particular were reaping the benefits.

The data suggests that President Biden’s approach to fostering private investment through public incentives is poised to deliver substantial economic benefits to communities that traditionally lean conservative. By targeting strategic sectors, these investments have the potential to reshape local economies, creating jobs and driving growth in areas that previous administrations often overlooked.

The crisis was past. The seeds were all planted. And whoever walked into the White House in 2024 could look forward to harvesting an era of prosperity without having to pay the political price Biden had endured in battling the wreckage he was handed in 2020.

Trump could have enjoyed an unearned reputation as an economic genius. He could have bragged about every fresh morsel of good news from the seat of his golf cart, built his monuments to vanity, and collected every dollar of crypto scam funds while being cheered by the masses.

Laziness is Trump's specialty. And laziness was all that was called for to be pseudo-great.

However, in addition to being lazy, Trump is also supremely weak. He gave in to the men who gathered round to flatter him, handing over the reins of power to those who wanted nothing more than to murder people for their skin color, sicken children, and engage in the most depraved torture.

Meanwhile, he handed large slices of the government, including the economy, to the bizarre legion of right wing fantasists behind Project 2025.

The Mandate for Leadership explicitly advocates for a sweeping repatriation of American production and heavy tariffs on foreign goods. This philosophy is rooted in economic nationalism — the belief that domestic self-sufficiency is paramount, even at the expense of global integration and efficiency.

Unlike the positive incentives put in place by Biden, the Project 2025 all-stick, no-carrot tactics have objectively failed. Manufacturing jobs have been lost and projects launched under Biden have been cancelled as Trump's team swung policy wildly toward tactics that have been unsuccessful every time they were tried.

Scientific innovation, long the engine of the American economy, has been strangled. Promising medical treatments in their final stage of development have been cancelled. Trump has spent almost $4 billion to stop wind farms that were already on their way to delivering cheap power to American consumers.

All of that is according to Project 2025's prescriptions for the country. This disaster is the plan.

If you've noticed that eating salad has become a death-defying act, that disturbing amounts of supposedly-edible products are coming complete with bits of broken glass or metal fragments, and that beef prices are at record highs, all of that is also part of the plan. Food insecurity is one of Project 2025's big goals. It's a plan that puts children and consumers at risk while punishing the farmers who voted for Trump. All to support the theory of ... honestly, I have no idea.

The inflation rate today is higher than when Trump took office. The price of gas is higher. The price of beef is higher. The price of electricity is higher. Unemployment is higher. Wage growth is lower. The deficit has soared.

And, just as a cherry onto of this s**t sundae, the United States has locked itself in a completely needless war in the Middle East that has left us significantly weaker militarily, economically, and diplomatically. Trump's toadying to Benjamin Netanyahu has lost 15 American bases in the Middle East, drained our national defense, opened the door for China, and severed what remained of our ties to allies around the world.

Oh, and it's also left us in an trade war with Canada that we can't win.

This is a dumb trade war. From Florida tourism operators to automakers with integrated supply chains, most U.S. companies view Canada as a partner in prosperity. ... Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten issued a statement saying that “new tariffs and retaliation risk raising costs for American businesses and families.”

All Trump had to do was sit back and collect the plaudits. But he's not just egotistical, he's weak. What it's earned him is nearly universal scorn, even among people who voted for him.

I say, let's watch Trump plan that triumphal arch. He's already picked his Elba.

US President Donald Trump is seeking $152m (£115m) to reopen the infamous Alcatraz prison as part of his proposed budget for the 2027 fiscal year. ... The budget request is seeking money "to rebuild Alcatraz as a state-of-the-art secure prison facility", with funds covering the first year of costs.

We may need it longer than a year. But then ... maybe not.