Trump’s Russian diesel deal is a disgusting scam

On Friday, Donald Trump made a shocking announcement that he had reached a deal with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to buy Russian diesel fuel. The announcement specifies “300,000 tons” immediately within another 3,000,000 tons to follow at an unspecified later date. According to Trump, this will bring diesel prices down “in record numbers” and “fast.”

No. It won’t. Because this is a scam.

First, the numbers stated are ludicrously small. There are around 281 gallons of diesel in a metric ton, so Trump’s initial purchase would total 85 million gallons. That may sound like a lot… until you realize that the United Staes goes through 123 million gallons of diesel each day. Trump’s total purchase, including to larger shipments to come later, would power American equipment for less than three days.

Second, Russia has no diesel to give. For months, Ukrainian drones and missiles have been making Russian refineries into slag. Russians have faced rationing for months, and the average Russian worker would currently have to surrender 81% of his pay for a single tank. During this period, exports of diesel have been banned and Russia has even begun to import diesel to replace its falling production.

Should any Russian diesel make it to American shores, it won’t be enough to cause even a flicker in diesel prices. The primary reason for this is that, even as Trump brags about the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the contents of those ships is far from normal. Insurance companies may be willing to cover a tanker full of crude at prices exceeding $1 million per ship, but they are unwilling to insure highly flammable diesel tankers at any price—not so long as missile and drones are still striking transiting ships. The flow of diesel through the Strait is barely a tenth of what it was before Trump launched his war.

The Washington Post notes that this deal aligns the United States with Putin’s villainous regime, but that does adequately describe what Trump has done. The deal doesn’t just align the United States against Ukraine, it positions us in opposition to every democratic government on the planet, to every institution of international law, and our own commitments and signed agreements. It is an unqualified abomination. What could possibly be worth the moral, economic, and strategic damage the nation will absorb with Trump’s red diesel?

It’s not about fuel. It’s about blame.

Last month, as it became clearer that rising diesel prices were driving the final nail into the coffins of multiple Republican candidates, Trump began blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the damage his war with Iran had created.

“Mr Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia … He’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel. This isn’t done by the Middle East, this is done by what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine.”

Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries since shortly after Putin’s illegal and unprovoked invasion began. Limiting Russian access to the fuel that drives their military machine is a critical component of Ukraine's survival strategy and has been one of the biggest factors in slowing Russia’s destructive advance.

Asking Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries isn’t just asking Zelenskyy to fight with one hand behind his back, it’s tacit to demanding Ukraine’s surrender.

Trump doesn’t care. The whole purpose of his “deal,” which may or may not result in any actual fuel reaching the country, is simply to shuffle the blame onto Zelenskyy. Which only makes it more disgusting.