What's in the box? Nothing but Donald Trump's war delusions

On Tuesday, Donald Trump claimed that Iran had shipped him a "very big present."

“They gave us a present and the present arrived today. It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money,” Trump said of Iran.

Then Trump refused to say what this present might be.

Finally, during a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, Trump let America peek into the box, saying that Iran had allowed ten oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a gift to him. Trump then said that the safe passage of these ships shows that "we’re real and solid and we’re there."

But … are we?

The reason Trump is so insistent on his realness is that it continues to be unclear if the United States is talking to anyone of significance in the Iranian government. At the same time that Trump claimed receipt of "a very significant prize," he also declared that the United States was in talks with a "top person" in Iran. This top person was then described as someone who couldn't be named "because his own people would try to kill him."

Which doesn't sound like someone in a strong position to negotiate.

Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Ministry categorically denied that any negotiations had taken place. The speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Ghalibaf, called the negotiations "fake news intended to manipulate financial and oil markets and to escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are trapped." This manipulation has definitely been happening since the start of this war.

While some oil tankers have been allowed through the Strait of Hormuz, there's no evidence that this has anything to do with negotiations between the United States and Iran. Instead, multiple sources have reported that Iran is using its control of the strait to extort fees from a "trickle of ships" it is allowing to slip through the narrow passage.

On Tuesday Tehran told the IMO and the UN that it would permit “non-hostile vessels” – which it determines as those not taking part in or supporting “acts of aggression” against it nor those belonging to the US or Israel – to pass through the strait. … It is unclear at this stage whether Iran is requiring payment for safe passage; at least two vessels have paid to transit the strait, according to Lloyd’s List analysts, with one of the payments reportedly as high as $2m (£1.5m) for a VLCC (very large crude carrier).

What's more, Iran announced a safe corridor for transit of non-hostile vessels a week before Trump declared that he had been gifted something good thanks to his skillful negotiations. In fact, at least nine vessels had already passed through the Strait by March 18.

It appears that Iran is continuing to treat the Strait as a "toll gate" under its control, with a handful of tankers making a daily passage after searches and sizable payments to the Iranian military. Nothing in this arrangement suggests even a remote connection to any deal made with Trump.

In fact, as Trump was smirking in Thursday's Cabinet meeting, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was putting out a very different message; one that doesn't seem like the way you would treat someone who just delivered a big, valuable present.

Even so, news outlets around the globe are dutifully reporting Trump's claim that the passage of these tankers is a gift to the United States. Because repeating Trump's claims is what the media does.

If you've never watched anything but News Max in your life, you may be surprised to hear this, but ... Donald Trump lies. He lies a lot. He lies about big things, he lies about small things, he lies when there's absolutely no reason to lie.

Trump's lies are so non-stop and over the top that there are academic studies discussing just what makes his lies so categorically different from the lies told by any other politician.

Just two weeks ago, Trump claimed that a former United States president had congratulated him for his pointless, unprovoked attack on Iran.

"I've spoken to a certain president, who I like actually. A past president, former president, he said 'I wish I did it. I wish I did." But they didn't do it."

Then, just as he refused to explain about the "gift" he said had "arrived" on Tuesday, Trump refused to name that president.

However, unlike the unnamed "top" person negotiating for Iran, former presidents are a limited set. Within hours, reporters had secured statements from every living president in their effort to learn who had given Trump this signal of envy and praise. The answer was: Nobody. Joe Biden, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton all made it absolutely clear that they were not "it."

At this point, it's impossible to tell what Trump actually knows or believes. Are the Iran negotiations something that he fantasized about between dreams of big, strong men who want to weep on his shoulder or kiss him? We know that his staff is lying to him, and delivering a Very Special version of the war compressed into two minutes of boom-booms for his enjoyment. Maybe they are also scripting both sides of negotiations that are taking place only in the bowels of Mar-a-lago.

Is Trump lying? Is he being lied to? Is he simply delusional?

It's probably all three.