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Three lessons for winning the 2026 midterms

Republicans may scream “Marxist,” pundits may faint at the thought of actually doing something new, but the truth is that progressive ideas are extremely popular with Americans, and not just in blue cities.

4 min read
Photo by Vitaly Gariev / Unsplash

Sherrill: Running against Trump works

The oh-so-smart pundocracy may insist that Democrats spend too much time attacking Donald Trump, but repeatedly tying her opponent to Trump’s highly unpopular actions was key to New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill’s blow-out win. In particular, Sherrill was able to strike back directly against one of Trump’s signature actions: Taking federal dollars from states that dare elect Democrats.

In an interview with Morning Edition, Sherill said her win was about New Jersey residents wanting leadership at a time when many feel some of President Trump's moves — including tariffs, federal reductions in health spending and threats to the multi-billion dollar Gateway Tunnel Project â€” will make life harder for them.

In races up and down the line in New Jersey, candidates were successful by leveraging Trump’s unpopularity. As the New Jersey Monitor reports, other Republicans understood exactly why the numbers were so bad.

“This was a referendum on Donald Trump and the reaction in New Jersey, a blue state, to Donald Trump, and since Jack was 100% MAGA, he was part of the referendum on Trump,” said Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Union), a moderate and frequent Trump critic who was among Ciattarelli’s rivals for the GOP gubernatorial nod. “Things aren’t very complicated in politics sometimes.”

Will this tactic work as well in states Trump hasn’t explicitly tried to screw over? It might, if candidates remind voters about the factories and opportunities crushed when Trump cancelled manufacturing grants and killed many of the same projects that Republicans had rushed to take credit for despite voting against the CHIPS Act. A lot of ribbons were cut on projects that are now in the dustbin and the majority of those lost jobs were going to be in red states. Remind voters of that, and don’t forget to include some clips of Trump’s new marble bathroom, gaudy gold decorations, and Gatsby party.


Spanberger: Anti-trans scare tactics don’t work

By many measures, Abigail Spanberger ran the least exciting campaign of 2025. A more moderate candidate in a year when progressives were leading the charge and capturing headlines, Spanberger was never on the bleeding edge. However, she still managed to win going away over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears despite a last minute push from the Republican candidate focused on a single issue.

Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears' campaign spent millions of dollars on ads attacking Democratic nominee and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger for her stance on transgender rights in Virginia schools. 

One ad claims Spanberger supports "men in girls' locker rooms," and closes with the notion that "Abigail Spanberger is for they/them, not us" – a direct echo of an ad the Trump campaign used against Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

It wasn’t just that last-minute push. Throughout the campaign, Earle-Sears spent roughly 57% of her campaign expenditures attacking Spanberger on the issue of trans rights.

"We see it's about $30 million worth of attack ads against me related to trans youth," [Spanberger] told Katie Couric in an interview last week. "There's a real effort to engage in some level of fearmongering."

Spanberger wasn’t exactly the most vocal advocate of trans rights. In fact she was as moderate on this issue as she was on many others, holding that trans rights shouldn’t be a federal or even a state issue. Instead, she stated that issues like restroom access and sports participation should be resolved ”at a local level.” Which seems like a classic example of passing the buck.

Still, Spanberger pointedly refused to abandon trans people, or adopt some of the blatantly anti-trans positions pundits have claimed are necessary if Democrats want to win. So … good for her.

Anti-trans ads were a big part of Trump’s 2024 campaign and the 2021 campaign of Virgini’s current governor, Glenn Youngkin. But the results this week are a good indication that this issue is played out. Or maybe the thought of trans youth playing volleyball is just not that frightening when Trump’s masked vigilantes are roaming the country assaulting people for the lols.

This is the easy one. In spite of some incredible expenditures by conservatives, Islamophobes, and plain old bigots, Zohran Mamdani won the New York mayor’s race with more votes than anyone since 1969.

Some part of this, maybe the largest part, is having a candidate who is incredibly personable, energetic, and self-deprecating; pretty much the oppo of most politicians. But what sealed the deal for many voters—in spite of all the money spent trying to build every possible fear—was a set of highly progressive proposals. Which is what you would expect from a self-described Democratic Socialist.

Republicans may scream “Marxist,” pundits may faint at the thought of actually doing something new, but the truth is that progressive ideas are extremely popular with Americans, and not just in blue cities.

These policies have durable support and can stand up to predictable right-wing counterarguments. We have good reason to believe that even when they become politicized, they’ll remain popular with persuadable voters and the base in many geographies.

Those policies include some at the forefront of Mamdani’s campaign—expanding public housing, free college education, paid family leave—but also extend to things like automatic voter registration, expanded worker rights, and rules to severely punish political corruption. Some issues, like capping credit card rates and red flag laws restricting gun ownership, have majority support in every single state. The Green New Deal, despite years of attacks from Trump and millions spent lobbying by oil companies, enjoys majority support in 44 states.

Democrats not only can win on progressive issues, they have to win on these issues if they want that victory to be lasting and transformative.

The big lessons

To win, Democrats don’t have to abandon anyone. Not gay Americans, not trans Americans, not immigrants. Yes, Republicans will try to fearmonger, but they’ll do that anyway.

They also don’t have to abandon progressive policies, especially when those policies have broad public support. Yes, Republicans will scream “communist,” but they’ll do that anyway.

And Democrats should never hesitate in blaming Trump for the disasters he’s caused, the hatred he displays, or the inane statements he makes. Yes, Republicans will try to defend him and … that’s the best thing that can happen.


Mark Sumner

Author of The Evolution of Everything, On Whetsday, Devil's Tower, and 43 other books.

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