COVID-19 Update: A new variant makes the rounds, and the 'Lab Leak' theory takes a dive

A new strain of COVID-19 is spreading rapidly across the nation. Scientists are concerned that this BA.3.2 variant, a descendant of the Omicron strain that swept the globe in 2023, may have mutations that allow it to evade most or all vaccines.

Meanwhile, a recently published scientific paper throws cold water on backers of the "lab escape" claim by showing that another often cited contention of that theory is simply not true.

BA.3.2 "Cicada"

The variant that's now raising concerns around the world isn't exactly new. It was first detected two years ago in South Africa and has since made low-level appearances in several areas. However, in recent months, this variant, nicknamed "Cicada," has sharply increased in global prevalence. It now accounts for more than a third of cases in Eastern Europe, and wastewater tests show it's moving rapidly across the United States.

The reason for both Cicada's spread and scientists' concerns is that this variant has more than 70 mutations to the "spike protein" found in the original wild strain of COVID-19. Fifty of those changes have come since this strain branched off from others in the BA.3 family.

Most vaccines use the spike protein to train the immune system to fight infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Cicada may feature enough differences in this protein that neither vaccines nor previous infection by an earlier variant is sufficient to provide effective immunity. The latest vaccine primarily targets JN.1, KP.2, and BA.6 variants that were common in the fall, and availability of the vaccine is largely restricted to those over 65.

There's a good chance that Cicada could produce a "summer surge" of cases.

However, the good news is that, so far at least, Cicada has not generated an increase in hospitalizations or deaths in the areas where it has become more common. It seems to generate roughly the same level of symptoms as other circulating strains. Summer 2026 may see more cases of COVID-19 than the last three years, but that doesn't mean it's going to bring back the horrific scenes of the early pandemic.

Still, this is not something to be ignored. COVID-19 remains a serious illness capable of causing lasting damage. Stay informed about the incidence of disease in your area, consider avoiding indoor events with large crowds, and now would be a good time to dust off that box of masks.

Horseshoe bats can carry COVID-19 … and that's significant

From the beginning of the 2020 pandemic, there were two competing theories about the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. One group held that the virus made its way into the human population from animal hosts, possibly starting from an infamous "wet market" in Wuhan, China. Another group pointed to the presence of a viral research facility in Wuhan and argued that the virus had escaped into the public after being modified by scientists.

Previous viruses in the same family have been traced to animal hosts.

SARS, caused by SARS-CoV-1, emerged in late 2002 near Foshan, China. It produced a limited epidemic with a total of 8,422 cases. However, its high case fatality rate (CFR) of over 11% made it a justifiably feared disease. In 2003, researchers found a similar virus in civets being sold at a market in Guangdong, China. Several other animals sold at these markets were also found to be infected with this virus.

The first known human cases of MERS, caused by MERS-CoV, occurred in Egypt in 2012. Only 2,700 cases have been identified, but the CFR is a staggering 35%. The disease was found to be spread by camels and, fortunately, doesn't seem to spread person-to-person.

However, even though civets and camels may have been the animals that spread these diseases directly to humans, they are thought to be only intermediary hosts of the virus. There has long been another animal that was considered the likely reservoir of these SARS-CoV viruses in the wild: Horseshoe bats.

Two years after the first SARS outbreak, "60 Minutes" Scott Pelley interviewed Dr. Peter Daszak to discuss his fears about viruses found in these bats.

“What worries me the most is that we are going to miss the next emerging disease, that we’re suddenly going to find a SARS virus that moves from one part of the planet to another, wiping out people as it moves along.”

In 2025, a study looked at the viruses circulating in bats in the same area of China where SARS first appeared and found that all three of the human viruses behind SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 had "very recent common ancestors with bat viruses." By taking samples from bats around the region, the study determined that ancestors of human SARS-CoVs likely originated in Western China and Northern Laos.

There were enough differences between the viruses found in these bats and SARS-CoV-2 that the lab leak theorists argued that, even if bats had been the source of the original virus, it had to have undergone modification to become capable of spreading person-to-person. And there was one part of that study that helped fan the flames for lab leak supporters.

Our findings indicate that there would not have been sufficient time for the direct bat virus ancestor to reach the locations of emergence of the human SARS-CoVs via normal dispersal through bat populations alone.

However, the study also pointed out that both human intervention—in the form of collecting bats for food or traditional medicine—or intermediate animal hosts might have moved the virus along more quickly. Other studies, including one that identified SARS-like viruses in bats found in Russia, indicated that these viruses might have been spreading in the bat population longer than had been expected. Tests have also indicated that the original versions of the virus found in bats could directly infect people, so an intermediate species might not have been necessary.

One recent study takes a different approach. Instead of looking for viruses similar to human SARS-CoV-2 in the wild, researchers from the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development took the human virus ... and tried to infect the bats.

Doing this required finding ways to keep these bats, which feed on insects using echolocation, in captivity for an extended period (read the study if you want to know how they trained them to eat mealworms). Once they had that down, they exposed the bats to the human virus. What they got was the textbook definition of "a good carrier."

In contrast to Syrian hamsters which showed substantial viral replication, infected horseshoe bats exhibited low-level but persistent viral replication in the lung without overt disease.

The bats developed persistent infection, but didn't get sick. This allows them to act as a long-term reservoir for the virus, which could then spread to other animals.

We now know that:

• The common ancestor of the viruses behind SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 is found in horseshoe bats
• These viruses are capable of infecting people (though it's unclear if they could then be spread person-to-person)
• The SARS-CoV-2 virus can infect and be carried by horseshoe bats

Add this to previously known facts:

• Initial cases of COVID-19 were clustered around the Wuhan market, not the virus lab
• Animals that could potentially carry COVID-19 were found at the market, along with live examples of the virus

Then top it off with the results of this study, published in March, which studied the way mutations occur to distinguish between naturally evolved and lab-altered viruses.

SARS-CoV-2 shows no genetic signal of lab adaptation. Its evolutionary pattern matches natural circulation in animal reservoirs, undermining claims of prolonged laboratory manipulation.

There was never any good evidence behind the lab-leak theory. It appears to have risen from a mixture of paranoia, racism, and a deep-seated need to find someone else to blame … which certainly explains why this administration supports it.

But if there's really a need for people to exercise their whodunit glands, here's another very interesting finding in that March report.

“The 1977 influenza story is, in many ways, even more compelling than what we found for COVID-19,” Wertheim said. “Our results provide new molecular evidence supporting the long-suspected idea that the H1N1 pandemic was sparked by a laboratory strain — possibly in the context of a failed vaccine trial.”

Historical records and prior genetic analyses have suggested that the 1977 H1N1 virus appeared almost unchanged after a 20-year absence, a pattern difficult to reconcile with natural evolution. The new findings add another layer, showing that the virus also experienced selection similar to that seen in laboratory-adapted influenza strains and live-attenuated vaccines.

That 1977 flu is also known as "Russian flu," because it seems to have originated in that nation. Those who want to hunt down the culprit should first consider just how much time they want to spend in a gulag.

When it comes to COVID-19, the lab leak theory looks to have sprung way too many leaks to stay afloat.

Note: I understand that just seeing my byline next to "COVID-19 update" may be enough to generate heart palpitations. Please don't panic. We may be in for another wave this year that exceeds those seen since the end of 2022 ... or not. In any case, it's likely to be milder than either the original or Delta variants.

But as someone with friends who still suffer from long COVID, I'm serious about getting those masks ready. The time to wear them is before everyone else is wearing them.