Trump can't give you a good reason the U.S. is bombing Iran, but I can give you three

Two weeks in, and the White House still can’t give a coherent argument for why American soldiers, thousands of Iranians, and other people all across the Middle East are dying in a war started by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. The streets of Tehran are a raging inferno, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the Pentagon is burning through a cool $2 billion a day. And no one can explain why.

It certainly wasn’t because Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon. That wasn’t true even before Trump bombed Iran the first time.

It wasn’t because Iran was developing a missile that could threaten America. Intelligence reports show that Iran couldn’t build such a weapon for a decade if they tried—and they weren’t trying.

It apparently wasn’t even about regime change, since all we got out of it was a younger, even more radical Iranian leader with an even bigger reason to hate the United States. Even in closed-door hearings, members of Congress aren’t being given a rational explanation for the attack on Iran.

But even if the White House can’t come up with a reason to throw the entire Middle East onto a bonfire, that doesn’t mean a reason can’t be found. And in the Trump White House, a good place to start is by looking for the obvious corruption.

For example, on Tuesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright—the former CEO of America's second-largest maker of fracking gear—made this post claiming that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

Within hours, the post had been deleted, but not before having a significant effect on energy markets, causing crude oil prices to abruptly reverse steep increases caused by Trump's attack. It took two days for oil futures to recover from that drop, closing above $100 on Thursday for the first time in four years.

As has happened so often in this White House, Wright's tweet was quickly blamed on a "staffer." Just like that other staffer who posted Trump's hyper-racist video.

Only in this case, it seems very likely that anyone making this post would know the effect it would have on markets. As The Wall Street Journal reports, this single tweet was a major opportunity for pulling down a windfall profit … but only for those who knew it was coming.

The since-deleted post was enough to wipe out million-dollar trades. Benchmark U.S. crude futures plunged by as much as 19% at one point. During a roughly 10-minute span when Wright’s post appeared, an exchange-traded fund linked to oil futures saw $84 million of its market capitalization evaporate.

With every announcement that Trump makes about adding or removing tariffs, the market has responded predictably, creating a boom for insiders who can bet on the next frantic swing. Now, Trump's Iran war is a fresh field of play for the insiders. In fact, it has been since before the first missile flew. As The New York Times reported,

One day before the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, a surge in big bets placed on Polymarket on Friday suggested that some bettors may have seen the strike coming. … A New York Times analysis of Polymarket data over that period found that it was relatively uncommon for someone to bet a significant sum of money that a U.S. strike would happen by the next day.

But over the course of Friday, more than 150 accounts placed hundreds of bets of at least $1,000, correctly predicting an American strike on Iran by Saturday.

Sixteen of those Polymarket accounts pulled down over $100,000 each. One anonymous account made nearly half a million dollars from a single bet. And that was just large transactions at a single market. It's impossible to tell how much insiders actually made by knowing the time when the bombs would begin to fall—and, thanks to anonymous accounts and crypto payouts, impossible to tell just who walked away with the cash.

Polymarket also paid out $500,000 to a user who was mysteriously accurate on the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (though another online market, Kalshi, refused to pay out on bets that Khamenei would "leave office").

From Polymarket to the futures market, insiders are absolutely raking in cash. Still, that seems like a poor reason for squandering $2 billion a day.

But wait! Don't forget the stock market. If there's any truly safe bet in this affair, you can be sure that Trump's nominee to replace former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem hasn't forgotten.

Benzinga recently shared that [Sen. Markwayne] Mullin owns oil stocks and defense stocks, which comes as the U.S. attack on Iran has boosted the shares of stocks in those sectors the senator owns.

Mullin may be profiting from the stocks, but there is someone in the White House who is taking a more direct route. Back in January, Trump sold the first tanker full of oil he swiped in our last attack on a sovereign nation.

The United States has completed its first sale of Venezuelan oil, valued at $500 million, according to an administration official. Additional sales of oil are expected in the coming days and weeks, the official added.

That oil sold at a 30% premium over the discount price Venezuela had been getting for its crude. Even so, oil was only $60 / barrel at the time. That same tanker would fetch over $830 million on the market now.

And where was that money going? To an account Trump controlled in Qatar.

In February, Wright announced that U.S. sales of Venezuelan oil had surpassed $1 billion, with plans to sell $5 billion more. He insisted that the money was no longer being stored in Qatar but was going into the U.S. Treasury. He also claimed that the first $500 million had been sent back to Venezuela. However, it's not as if anyone has made an audit of these accounts.

Venezuela has the largest proven reserves of oil on the planet. Billions of dollars worth of that oil are now sloshing around between accounts with no outside party confirming the volume, value, or destination of sales.

Before Trump took over the leadership of Venezuela, oil was down to $55 / barrel on the global market. It has increased by 90% in a matter of weeks. If someone happened to be in control of large amounts of oil and held the reins of the world's largest military, they could just about set their own price.

Trump insiders are pulling down millions based on their knowledge of what comes next. Trump and his top cronies may be pocketing billions from their takeover of Venezuelan oil, while his oil industry buddies are preparing for a Scrooge McDuck bath.

However, the third possible reason for this unreasonable war is bigger than either of those.

On Thursday afternoon, the Treasury Department dropped sanctions on the sale of Russian oil.

Authorizing the Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products of Russian Federation Origin Loaded on Vessels as of March 12, 2026

Even though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tweeted that this is a “narrowly tailored, short-term measure," what it actually represents is an immeasurable gift to Trump's bestie, Vladimir Putin.

After expending over 1.2 million men, 11,000 tanks, 435 aircraft, 31 ships, and 2 submarines, the cost of Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine has been rapidly bankrupting Russia. Just days before Trump pulled the trigger, his buddy was facing an economy nearing collapse, principally due to its difficulty in selling the one real export it controls—oil.

Russia’s position in the market has fundamentally changed. Four years ago, it was powerful, representing the main independent force within OPEC+ and, broadly speaking, a comanager of the market. Today, it continues to sell oil, but it no longer dictates or determines anything.

Russia has effectively been pushed into a near monopsony, with only two major buyers – India and China, both stronger than the seller and able to dictate terms and prices.

The limited market meant that Russian oil sold at a steep discount. When world prices were sitting at $60 / barrel, Russia was delivering oil to China and India at $20 to $30 less.

Being able to sell only small amounts of oil at a steep discount put Russia on the brink of a banking crisis, one that was being felt, not just by the readily ignored outlying districts, but by the elite in Moscow.

To cover the shortfall in energy revenue, Moscow has tapped its sovereign wealth fund. But that is running out now too, so the government has resorted to raising more revenue via tax hikes. …

With companies feeling the squeeze of high rates and weaker consumption, Russian data show unpaid wages nearly tripled in October from a year ago to more than $27 million, with the Post adding that furloughs and shorter workweeks are also becoming more common.

Nearly half of Russia's diminished economy is needed to sustain the bottomless pit of the Ukraine invasion, with interest payments on debt for that war rapidly eating into the rest. More than half of the National Wealth Fund that had been built up from past oil sales has already been spent, and the rest was going even faster.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has just pivoted away from the stalemate in central Donetsk to make the largest advance since 2023.

Ukraine has made its quickest territorial gains in two and a half years, reclaiming 201 square kilometers between February 11 and 15, according to the Institute for the Study of War. By February 20, the total recaptured area in the Zaporizhzhia region exceeded 300 square kilometers, including several settlements along the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk border.

Could anyone throw Russia a lifeline in their hour of need? Yes, as it turns out. Raising the price of oil above $100, then allowing Russia to sell it anywhere without constraint, is about as much of a miracle as Putin could hope for. And this is happening just as the U.S. is begging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for help in dealing with Iranian drones.

For some people, rising oil prices may be a problem. But if you're Putin, or Mullin, or Wright, or Trump, they're a blessing.

Hear that? When oil goes up, we make a lot of money.

But only for certain definitions of "we."